Calculators
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Expected Value (%)
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Fraction of Bankroll to Wager (%)
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Wager with $10k Bankroll ($)
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Kelly Criterion Calculator
Kelly Criterion Calculator
What is the Kelly Criterion? The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine your recommended bet size for positive expected value bets based on your edge and bankroll. It tells you exactly how much to stake when the odds you're getting are better than the fair price. The higher the Kelly fraction, the more risk you take on. We recommend setting your Kelly multiplier to 0.3 to limit risk while still optimizing for long-term profitability. If the result is zero or negative, the odds don't justify a bet. You can customize your Kelly multiplier and bankroll in your account settings to tailor bet sizing recommendations across the platform.
Enter your bankroll, American odds, your estimated win probability, and a Kelly fraction (1.0 = full, 0.5 = half, 0.25 = quarter). You can determine fair win probability by running the market through our No-Vig Odds Calculator. The calculator outputs your recommended stake — if it returns zero, you have no edge.
Kelly % = (bp − q) / b, where b = decimal odds − 1, p = win probability, q = 1 − p. Example: +200 odds (b = 2.0), 40% win probability (p = 0.4, q = 0.6). Kelly % = (2.0 × 0.4 − 0.6) / 2.0 = 10%. On a $5,000 bankroll at full Kelly, the recommended stake is $500.